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【Financial Observation: U.S. economic performance in the second quarter is mixed】. Joseph Gagnon, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Xinhua that the effect of fiscal stimulus has basically disappeared and that the U.S. economic growth rate will gradually return to about 2% of the "more normal" level. Gagnon believes that trade tension is the main risk facing the U.S. economy. From the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports to the United States by the U.S. government to the threat of imposing tariffs on imported cars from Europe and Japan, trade uncertainty leads to delays in investment. Although the second quarter U.S. economic data released on the same day were better than expected, analysts generally believed that the Fed could still cut interest rates by the end of July in order to prevent economic growth risks, but a small cut of 25 basis points was more likely. (Xinhua)
【Sun Dongqing, the proposed general manager of Nomura Oriental International Securities, has been granted four licenses to open at the end of the year】. According to China Securities Network, on July 27, Nomura Oriental International, one of the first newly established foreign-funded securities firms, was set up at the sub-forum of the Shenzhen Forum of 50 people in China Wealth Management on "Opening of China's Financial Industry and Global Layout of Capital Management Institutions". Sun Dongqing, the proposed general manager of securities, said that Nomura Oriental International Securities had obtained four preparatory licences, including brokerage licences, asset management licences, self-service licences and research and consulting licences. Nomura Oriental International Securities is actively preparing to open at the end of the year.
Business invitation macro: It is expected that the profit of industrial enterprises in the fourth quarter tends to be positive at the end of the second quarter at the beginning of last year, which is far from reality. Now the reason for reflection is that the counter-cyclical policy has declined since late April, and the trade situation has been uncertain since May, which can be confirmed by PPI and PMI. Looking forward to the future, based on the background that PPI tends to be negative in the third quarter and recovers steadily in the fourth quarter, and considering the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction policy, it is expected that the profit growth of industrial enterprises will fluctuate around 0% in the third quarter, tend upward in the fourth quarter, and achieve a positive cumulative growth rate.
British Prime Minister Johnson: Leaving the EU is a huge economic opportunity for Britain.
Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, looks ahead to next week's Fed rate decision: the most likely scenario is a 25 basis point cut. The most likely scenario for next week's Fed rate decision is a 25 basis point cut. The Federal Reserve has been preparing for interest rate cuts since June. There are two reasons to cut interest rates. First, inflation is weak. Secondly, Global trade tensions have clouded the outlook. But the extreme case of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points or not is not ruled out. The insurable interest rate cut may cause the dollar to rise against other non-US currencies, but the USD/JPY increase against the yen is limited, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts will make the dollar lower, and the USD/JPY fall against the yen is also limited.
French Finance Minister Lemel: France's digital tax is not for American companies.
British Prime Minister Johnson: We will try to solve the problem of decoupling from Europe, but if the security agreement still exists, it will not be solved.
David Becker, commodity analyst: Natural gas futures prices will continue to bear pressure on U.S. natural gas futures prices to continue to fall on Friday because of the large accumulation of EIA natural gas stocks and the lack of tropical storms dragging down prices. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there will be no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. NOAA also reports that the weather in the Northeast will be warmer than normal in the next 6-10 days, but will become milder in the next 8-14 days. From a technical point of view, natural gas futures prices fell on Friday and continued to fall. The price readiness test is close to the target support level of 2.156, the June low.
【Dongfang Huili Zhong Xiaofeng: There will be world-class management companies in China in the next five to 10 years】. According to China Securities and Exchange Network, on July 27, at the sub-forum of the Shenzhen Forum of 50 people in China Wealth Management on the "Global Layout of China's Financial Opening and Management Institutions", Zhong Xiaofeng, CEO of Dongfang Huili Asset Management Corporation in North Asia, said that with the development of business With the establishment of financial subsidiaries of Industrial Bank, the volume of China's capital management market has been very large. If we take the speed of banking reform and development as a reference, the world-class capital management companies in the next 5 to 10 years should have the presence of Chinese institutions.
China's commercial crude oil stocks fell sharply last week and tensions in the Middle East did not ease. These factors intertwined and offset each other, thus failing to have a significant impact on the international crude oil market. International oil prices did not rise or fall much this week. Zheng Bin, an analyst at Xinhua Finance and Economics, believes that crude oil has shown an overall "inverted V" trend this week. The price gap between Brent and WTI has narrowed. In the case of weak news, oil prices still lack direction guidance. Oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia, are increasing their production. Adequate supply continues to put pressure on the rebound of oil prices. (Xinhua)
French Finance Minister Lemel: France will introduce digital tax while waiting for a global agreement.
British Prime Minister Johnson: The British people want to continue to leave Europe, and they want to finish it on October 31.
According to China Securities and Exchange, the first batch of Kechuang Theme Funds, which are still in the warehousing period, disclosed the "results" of nearly a week: the highest net value rose by 4.74%, and the highest return since its establishment was 7.42%. However, due to the relatively low proportion of new shares allocated to the fund, the net value of the related funds this week is relatively low.  

【财务观察:美国第二季度经济表现喜忧参半】彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员约瑟夫加格农(Joseph Gagnon)对新华社表示,财政刺激的效果已基本消失,美国经济增长率将逐步恢复到“更正常”水平的2%左右。加农认为,贸易紧张是美国经济面临的主要风险。从美国政府对中国进口到美国的汽车征收关税到对欧洲和日本进口汽车征收关税的威胁,贸易不确定性导致投资延误。尽管当天公布的第二季度美国经济数据好于预期,但分析师普遍认为,美联储仍可能在7月底之前降息,以防止经济增长风险,但降息25个基点的可能性更大。(新华社)
【野村东方国际证券(Nomura Oriental International Securities)拟任总经理孙东青已获四张年底开业许可证】据中国证券网报道,7月27日,首家新成立的外资证券公司野村东方国际在“中国金融业开放与全球布局”中国财富管理50人深圳论坛分论坛上成立。资本管理机构。拟任证券总经理孙东青表示,野村东方国际证券已取得经纪牌照、资产管理牌照、自助服务牌照和研究咨询牌照四项预备牌照。野村东方国际证券(Nomura Oriental International Securities)正积极准备年底开盘。
招商宏观:预计第四季度工业企业利润在去年年初第二季度末趋于正增长,这与现实相差甚远。现在反思的原因是反周期政策自4月下旬以来有所下降,而贸易形势自5月以来一直不确定,可以通过PPI和PMI加以确认。展望未来,在PPI第三季度呈负增长、第四季度稳步回升的背景下,考虑到税收减免政策的影响,预计工业企业利润增长将出现波动。第三季度约为0%,第四季度呈上升趋势,累计增长率为正。
英国首相约翰逊:离开欧盟对英国来说是一个巨大的经济机遇。
fxstreet分析师YohayElam展望下周美联储的利率决定:最有可能的情况是降息25个基点。下周美联储利率决定最有可能的情况是降息25个基点。自6月份以来,美联储一直在为降息做准备。降息有两个原因。首先,通货膨胀很弱。其次,全球贸易紧张局势给前景蒙上了阴影。但美联储降息50个基点的极端情况并不排除。可保利率下调可能导致美元兑其他非美元货币升值,但美元兑日元升值的可能性有限,进一步降息的可能性将使美元贬值,美元兑日元下跌的可能性也有限。
法国财政部长勒梅尔:法国的数字税不适用于美国公司。
英国首相约翰逊:我们将努力解决与欧洲脱钩的问题,但如果安全协议仍然存在,它将不会得到解决。
商品分析师贝克尔(David Becker):天然气期货价格将继续承受压力,美国天然气期货价格周五将继续下跌,原因是EIA天然气库存的大量积累以及热带风暴的缺乏拖累了价格。根据国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA),未来48小时内大西洋和墨西哥湾将不会出现热带气旋。美国国家海洋和大气管理局还报告说,东北部的天气在未来6-10天将比正常天气暖和,但在未来8-14天将变得温和。从技术角度来看,周五天然气期货价格下跌,并继续下跌。价格准备测试接近6月低点2.156的目标支持水平。
【东方汇理钟晓峰:未来5-10年中国将有世界一流的管理公司】。据中国证券交易网报道,7月27日,在“中国金融开放与管理机构全球布局”中国财富管理50人深圳论坛分论坛上,东方汇理资产管理有限公司北方首席执行官钟晓峰亚洲,说  

【野村東方國際證券擬任總经理孫鼕青:已獲批四张牌照 争取年底開業】據中證網,7月27日,在中國财富管理50人深圳论壇的“中國金融業開放與资管機構的全球佈局”分论壇上,首批新设外资控股券商之一——野村東方國際證券擬任總经理孫鼕青錶示,野村東方國際證券已经獲得瞭四张籌備牌照,包含经纪業務牌照、资產管理牌照、自營業務牌照、研究咨询牌照。目前野村東方國際證券正在積極籌建,争取年底開業。 招商宏觀:预计工業企業利润四季度趨于上行年初预测2季度末工業企業利润增速转正,與现實有差距。现在反思原因一是4月下旬以來逆週期政策力度有所下降,二是5月以來贸易局勢存在不確定性,這通過PPI、PMI都可印證。展望未來,基于PPI在三季度趨于负值四季度企穩迴陞的背景,同時考慮减税降费政策的效果,预计工業企業利润增速三季度將在0%上下波動,四季度趨于上行,纍计增速實现转正。 英國首相约翰遜:不想要無協议脱歐但我们不得不麵對事實。 大宗商品分析師David Becker:天然氣期货價格將繼续承壓美國天然氣期货價格在週五繼续走低,因爲EIA天然氣库存的大量積纍和缺乏熱帶風暴拖纍瞭價格。據美國國傢海洋大氣管理局(NOAA)錶示,未來48小時内大西洋或墨西哥湾將不會有熱帶氣鏇等活動。NOAA還報告说,未來6-10天,東北地區的天氣將比正常天氣温暖,但在8-14天期间變得温和。從技術麵看,天然氣期货價格上週五有所迴落,并繼续走低。價格準備测试接近6月低點2.156的目標支撑位。 【首批科创主题基金本週最高迴報4.74%】據中證報,尚處在建倉期的首批科创主题基金披露瞭近一週的“戰果”:最高净值涨幅達4.74%,成立以來最高迴報達7.42%。不過,由于科创主题基金獲配的科创闆新股佔基金净值的比例较低,因此相關基金本週净值涨幅较大或與其底倉科技股錶现较好有關。除瞭科创主题基金,部分公募基金本週净值涨幅超8%,最高迴報達11.32%。 【多空因素衝抵 國際油價涨跌不大】國商業原油库存上週大幅下降,中東地區緊张局勢未見纾解,這些因素相互交织及衝抵,因而未能對國際原油市场產生明顯影響,國際油價本週涨跌不大。新華财经分析師鄭彬認爲,原油本週整體呈现“倒V字”走勢,佈伦特與WTI價差有所收窄,在多空消息麵均偏弱的情况下,油價仍缺乏方嚮性指引。包括沙特、科威特、俄羅斯在内的產油國有增產趨勢,供應充足對油價反弹空间仍持续帶來壓力。(新華網) 英國首相约翰遜:我们將努力解决脱歐问题,但如果擔保協议仍然存在,那這個问题就無法解决。 法國财長勒梅爾:法國將在等待全球協议的同時引入數字税。 據北京發佈:北京移動方麵錶示,到今年年底5G基站將超過8000個,實现對東、西、北五環和南四環内,以及郊區城區的覆蓋。北京電信也披露年底前也將實现五環内5G信號在室外的连续覆蓋,明年起加快五環外重點區域的信號覆蓋。 法國财長勒梅爾:擁有一项公平的數字數符閤我们的利益。 【中國计算機產業规模居世界首位】在26日召開的“2019世界计算機大會”新闻發佈會上獲悉,作爲全球最大的计算機製造基地,目前中國计算機產業规模位居世界首位。據介绍,2018年中國计算機行業實现主營業務收入1.95萬億元,同比增長8.7%;微型计算機產量3.1億臺,其中筆记本電腦產量1.7億臺;服務器產量繼续快速增長,2018年達到瞭295.2萬臺,同比增長34.6%。 英國首相约翰遜:英國民眾想要繼续脱歐,并想在10月31日完成脱歐。 【東方匯理鍾小锋:未來5到10年中國會齣现世界级资管公司】據中證網,7月27日,在中國财富管理50人深圳论壇的“中國金融業開放與资管機構的全球佈局”分论壇上,東方匯理资產管理公司北亞區行政總裁鍾小锋錶示,隨着商業银行理财子公司的相繼成立,中國资管市场的體量已经非常大,如果把银行業的改革和發展速度作爲參照,未來5到10年世界级的资管公司裏應该有中國機構的身影。 英國首相约翰遜:離開歐盟對英國而言是一個鉅大的经濟機會。 法國财長勒梅爾:法國的數字税并不是针對美國公司。 FXStreet分析師Yohay Elam前瞻下週美聯储利率决议:最有可能的情况是降息25個基點下週美聯储利率决议最有可能的情况是降息25個基點。美聯储自六月開始就在爲降息做準備瞭。降息的理由有兩個。第一,通胀疲软。第二,全球贸易緊张局勢使得前景懞陰。不過不排除美聯储降息50個基點或者不降息的極端情况。保险性降息可能會使得美元兑其他非美货幣全线走高,但美元兑日元USD/JPY涨幅或有限,而進一步降息的可能性將使得美元走低,美元兑日元USD/JPY下跌的幅度也同樣有限。 【深圳地方金融監管局局長何傑:正在着手製定金融科技專项扶持政策】據上證報,在7月27日舉行的中國财富管理50人论壇上,深圳市地方金融監管局局長何傑介绍,2019年上半年深圳金融業增加值1663.16億元,同比增長7.0%,约佔全市GDP比重13.7%。并且,截至今年6月底,深圳證券業净资本居全國第二位,實现營業收入、净利润位列全國第一。何傑錶示,下一步深圳將加快佈局金融科技第三方服務業,同時深圳正在着手製定金融科技專项扶持政策,努力將自身打造成爲大湾區金融科技發展核心引擎、金融科技人纔標準示範基地以及可持续金融科技發展引领區。 市场消息:印度政府發錶聲明稱,印度將電動汽車的商品和服務税率從12%降低到5%。 英國首相约翰遜:推動经濟增速增長需要有齣色的公共基礎设施。 【财经觀察:美國二季度经濟錶现喜憂參半】美國彼得森國際经濟研究所高级研究员约瑟夫·加尼翁對新華社记者说,财政刺激政策效果已基本消失殆盡,美國经濟增長率將逐渐迴歸至“更加正常的”2%左右。加尼翁認爲,贸易緊张局勢是美國经濟麵臨的主要風险,從美國政府對中國输美商品加徵關税到威脅對歐洲和日本進口汽車加徵關税,贸易不確定性導緻企業推遲投资。雖然當天公佈的美國第二季度经濟數據好于预期,但分析人士普遍認爲,爲预防经濟增長風险,美聯储仍可能于7月底降息,但小幅降息25個基點的概率更大。(新華網)
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